Stories 2 - REMIND & MAgPIE stories #2

This study assesses whether single-cell protein (SCP) can decouple China’s livestock production from land-based feed and reduce environmental pressures. Using the MAgPIE-China, we simulate SCP substitution from 2025 to 2050 under three feed-replacement pathways: cereal replacement, fodder replacement, and combined cereal–fodder replacement. Substitution intensities range from 0% to 100%, allowing us to identify pathway-specific and non-linear system responses. Preliminary results show that full cereal substitution produces the largest cropland reduction and the lowest nitrogen surplus and agricultural emissions, while fodder substitution may increase cropland demand and environmental pressures. The study contributes by shifting the focus from consumption-side alternative protein substitution to feed-side technological change, showing that the environmental benefits of SCP depend critically on which feed categories are replaced and at what intensity.

I will present my latest research on the role of Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Use (AFOLU) policies for climate change mitigation (see preprint: https://www.researchsquare.com/article/rs-7407237/v1). This work makes use of the the REMIND-MAgPIE Integrated Assessment Modeling framework by quantifying the feedback on energy sector decarbonization of different AFOLU mitigation policy portfolios or strategies. It is a good example of how the coupling of the two models - via the exchange of bioenergy supply and demand, as well GHGs and GHG prices - enables the quantification of the three-sided trade-off between mitigation in the AFOLU sector, the energy and industry sector, as well as the climate objectives.

This presentation introduces a customization of the MAgPIE framework to the Brazilian context to support analyses of land-use change, agricultural development, and climate policies within Brazil. This work is part of a project funded by the Amazon Fund/BNDES aimed at supporting Brazil’s climate commitments, Forest Code implementation, and the Low-Carbon Agriculture Plan (ABC Plan). A new spatial configuration was implemented by separating Brazil from the Latin America region, and creating customized clusters based on Brazilian biomes, which improved the representation of the country’s socio-environmental diversity. MAgPIE input datasets were reprocessed and harmonized for the new spatial structure. Preliminary results compare historical data and model outputs for land use, crop production, livestock, and greenhouse gas emissions, highlighting challenges and opportunities for improving the representation of Brazilian agricultural systems in MAgPIE.

A new wave of steel capacity additions in emerging economies threatens to lock in coal-based production for decades. By combining detailed steel production modelling with plant-level data in the integrated assessment model REMIND, we estimate that existing and planned coal-based steel plants could commit the world to nearly 60 GtCO2. If current policy and investment trends continue beyond current plans, committed emissions reach 114 GtCO2, consuming 20% of the remaining carbon budget for limiting peak warming to 1.7 °C. We show that 60% of this lock-in risk can be avoided at moderate average abatement costs of US$100–150/tCO2. In India alone, 22 GtCO2 of future emissions could be avoided by leveraging climate finance to redirect US$50 billion this decade towards hydrogen-ready direct reduction steel plants. Near-term investment decisions on new steelmaking capacity represent a critical opportunity to avert the carbon lock-in and align the sector with climate targets.

We assess whether Paris-aligned mitigation pathways can remain compatible with sustainability safeguards using an integrated framework linking MAgPIE and MESSAGEix. We evaluate alternative mitigation and CDR portfolios under constraints on biodiversity, freshwater, fertilizer use, food security, and geological storage. Preliminary results show that sustainability safeguards reduce biomass reliance, strengthen afforestation and reforestation, and shift mitigation toward earlier emission reductions. While Paris climate targets remain achievable, sustainability-aware pathways require higher carbon prices and substantial land-system transformation, highlighting key trade-offs across the energy–water–land nexus.

Biomass serves a dual role in the global energy transition: as a traditional fuel declining with development, and as a feedstock for advanced bioenergy contributing to decarbonisation. We derive scenario-consistent, country-level biomass supply and potentials from MAgPIE, a global land-use model. The framework distinguishes current supply — wood fuel, manure fuel, and crop residue combustion, all declining under development — from harvestable potentials: ligno-cellulosic crop and wood processing residues for 2nd generation bioenergy, and confinement manure in anaerobic digesters as biogas feedstock. Results across SSP1–5 and SDP reveal strong regional heterogeneity: development shapes the decline of traditional supply while opening large future potential for 2nd generation bioenergy, though feedstock availability remains subject to sustainability and economic constraints.