Stories 1 - MAgPIE stories #1

We have created a new integrated assessment framework for the land-energy nexus by soft-coupling MAgPIE and MESSAGEix through a land-use emulator. In this approach, we modify MAgPIE to provide bioenergy potentials based on different policies and biomass prices. Then, we fix these potentials as demands and test carbon price sensitivities to assess land-use emissions under various carbon policies. Combining these two dimensions, we receive a scenario matrix functioning as parameter input for the energy model MESSAGE. We created several such matrices for various biodiversity policies, affecting both bioenergy potentials and land-use carbon emissions.

My work builds on the MESSAGE-MAgPIE emulator developed by Jan Steinhauser, and supports the work of Ron Milo’s group from Weizmann (in collaboration IIASA and colleagues from PIK), both of which are also presented in MAgPIE stories. In this short section, I will talk about soft-coupling the emulator to MAGICC, the statistical climate model from IIASA, to explore global mean surface temperature overshoot beyond the most ambitious 1.5 °C target agreed in the Paris agreement. This gives us the technical tool to systematically explore Land-Energy-Climate scenarios.

Here, we determined the environmental benefits of substituting ruminant meat with protein from microbes that grow on H2 and CO2. Using historical data on margarine, a successful analog for an animal-based product, we derived growth projections for microbial protein substitution of ruminant meats. We used these projections in a novel linkage of the MESSAGE-MAgPIE models and analyzed their impacts on the global land-energy-water nexus. Upon substitution, we observed notable improvements in key environmental indicators: natural land, biodiversity, land emissions, water withdrawal and fertilizer use. We also explored the impact of different climate and biodiversity policies. We found microbial scenarios show promise in achieving more ambitious climate targets even under stringent biodiversity policy. Furthermore, the microbial scenario exhibits a reduced carbon price, while attaining the same climate targets, underscoring its potential as an economically beneficial protein alternative.

Despite its role in diet shift scenarios, the livestock sector has received relatively less attention than crops in IAM development. I propose to oresent my work on sustainable intensification of grazing production systems made possible by the separation of managed pastures from rangelands and the creation if a oastures specific Tau factor. I will describe recent applications of these features in the FSEC, Nature Fiinance and Climate Advisers projects, and present proposals for anfuture research agenda.

Many food system actors emphasise the critical role of the global food system in achieving sustainable, inclusive, and climate-friendly future, and advocate for science-based pathways to inform policy. Developing such pathways requires modelling to test targets, explore options, address trade-offs and provide a coherent vision. The MAgPIE framework supports this research by projecting changes considering socio-economic and biophysical factors. However, the findings of the FSEC show that transformation requires a nuanced policy response. Implementing a pathway such as Food System Transformation requires a policy framework that emphasises coherence, bundling, and coordinated governance. Evidence-based, transparent and nuanced policy design ensures effective transformation. Modelling, coupled with a robust policy framework, demonstrates the feasibility and necessity of global food system transformation. FSEC’s approach exemplifies integrated study designs, combining modelling and policy.